Forecasts
4 articles on this topic, newest first.
2026
- AGI Is Always About Four Years Away: What 74 Predictions ShowSince 2023, AGI predictions put it a median 4.2 years out, and the predicted year keeps moving later. An analysis of 74 dated forecasts.14 min
- Pacing the Frontier: why AI's builders asked for a brake pedal1,386 frontier-lab staff, Dario Amodei and OpenAI's chief scientist among them, asked the US to build tools to slow automated AI research. What it means.12 min
- The 10x-a-year clock: what METR's AI time horizons really showMETR measures AI progress in hours of human work, and the number now grows about 10x a year. What it means, where it breaks, and what forecasters did.12 min
- A field guide to AGI forecastsSurveys, prediction markets and trend extrapolation all produce AGI dates. Here is how each forecasting method works, what it is good at, and how to read the numbers.2 min